黑龙江省冷害与全球变暖对水稻产量的影响(英文)

被引：11

作者：

刘晓菲 ^{[1
]}

张朝 ^{[1
]}

帅嘉冰 ^{[1
]}

王品 ^{[1
]}

史文娇 ^{[2
]}

陶福禄 ^{[2
]}

陈一 ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management/State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Proc-ess and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University

[2] Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,

来源：

Journal of Geographical Sciences | 2013年 / 23卷 / 01期

关键词：

rice production; chilling injury; Heilongjiang Province;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

S511 [稻]; S426 [寒潮];

学科分类号：

摘要：

This study is focused on indexes for the rice chilling injury in Heilongjiang Province during 1960-2009. Firstly, we compared a new derived climate data weighted by rice planting density with the traditional method, and found that the new one is more reasonable to assess the impact of climate change on crop yields. Considering the frequency and intensity of rice chilling in the province, secondly, chilling indexes defined by meteorological, national and international levels were assessed. The result showed that the meteorological standards were suitable for the delayed-type injury, while the international one, so-called sum of Grow-ing Degree Day below threshold (GDDn-), characterized best the sterile-type chilling injury for rice. The explanation ability of the rice yield time series model including both injury types as two independent variables reached approximately 92% (p < 0.05). Finally, we concluded that the contribution rates of human and weather factors to rice yields are about 87.2% and 12.8% respectively, and as light increasing trend for sterile-type chilling injury was found during heading to flowing period in recent years, indicating a high chilling risk for rice planting in Heilongjiang Province in the future global warming.

引用

页码：85 / 97

页数：13

共 23 条

[1] 气候变化对小麦生物量影响的概率预测和不确定性分析 [J].