洪水概率预报评价指标研究

被引:16
作者
蒋晓蕾
梁忠民
胡义明
王军
李彬权
机构
[1] 河海大学水文水资源学院
关键词
洪水概率预报; 倾向值预报; 区间预报; 覆盖率判定系数; 精度-可靠度联合评价指标体系; 淮河流域;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
P338 [水文预报];
学科分类号
081501 ;
摘要
在分析现有洪水概率预报评价指标的基础上,建立了洪水概率预报的"精度-可靠度"联合评价指标体系"精度"指标用于评价倾向值预报的准确性,包括确定性系数、相对误差等指标;"可靠度"指标用于评价区间预报的合理性,包括覆盖率、区间离散度等指标其中,在"可靠度"评价指标中,提出了一个新的评价指标,即覆盖率判定系数,用以评价多个区间预报结果的整体合理性以淮河王家坝区间流域为例进行应用研究,结果表明:"精度-可靠度"联合评价指标体系可以对洪水概率预报结果的合理性做出更全面的评价.
引用
收藏
页码:539 / 552
页数:14
相关论文
共 34 条
[21]  
Uncertainty assessment through a precipitation dependent hydrologic uncertainty processor: An application to a small catchment in southern Italy[J] . Daniela Biondi,Pasquale Versace,Beniamino Sirangelo.Journal of Hydrology . 2010 (1)
[22]  
Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modelling[J] . Hoshin V. Gupta,Harald Kling,Koray K. Yilmaz,Guillermo F. Martinez.Journal of Hydrology . 2009 (1)
[23]  
Ensemble flood forecasting: A review[J] . H.L. Cloke,F. Pappenberger.Journal of Hydrology . 2009 (3)
[24]   BFS在洪水预报中的应用与改进 [J].
王军 ;
梁忠民 ;
胡义明 .
河海大学学报(自然科学版), 2012, 40 (01) :52-58
[25]  
Nash Model Parameter Uncertainty Analysis by AM-MCMC Based on BFS and Probabilistic Flood Forecasting[J]. XING Zhenxiang1, 2, RUI Xiaofang3, FU Qiang1, JI Yi1, ZHU Shijiang1 (1. Department of Water Conservancy & Civil Engineering, Northeast Agriculture University, Harbin 150030, China;2. Key Laboratory for Water-saving Agriculture of Universities in Heilongjiang Province, Harbin 150030, China;3. Department of Hydrology, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China).Chinese Geographical Science. 2011(
[26]   BFS在洪水预报中的应用研究 [J].
张宇 ;
梁忠民 .
水电能源科学, 2009, 27 (05) :44-47
[27]   水文科学研究的世纪回眸与展望 [J].
叶守泽 ;
夏军 .
水科学进展, 2002, (01) :93-104
[28]   A model conditional processor to assess predictive uncertainty in flood forecasting [J].
Todini, E. .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT, 2008, 6 (02) :123-137
[29]   Do Nash values have value? [J].
Schaefli, Bettina ;
Gupta, Hoshin V. .
HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, 2007, 21 (15) :2075-2080
[30]  
Verification tools for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables[J] . Laio F.,Tamea S..Hydrology and Earth System Sciences . 2007 (82)