国际LUCC模型研究进展及趋势

被引：46

作者：

朱利凯

蒙吉军

机构：

[1] 北京大学城市与环境学院

来源：

地理科学进展 | 2009年 / 28卷 / 05期

关键词：

土地利用/覆被变化; 模型模拟; 尺度;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

F301 [土地经济学]; F224 [经济数学方法];

学科分类号：

082802 ; 1204 ; 120405 ; 0701 ; 070104 ;

摘要：

LUCC模型有助于深刻理解土地利用系统动态。经过10多年的发展,LUCC模型在理论和实践方面有了很大发展,开发新一代LUCC模型成为了GLP的一项重要任务。在大量阅读分析国际上LUCC模型应用研究的基础上,基于土地利用变化与驱动力之间相互作用表征方法的差异,从认识论的角度出发,本文将LUCC模型概括为经验—统计模型、概念机理模型和综合模型,并分别对各类模型的概念、技术方法、应用以及存在的缺陷等进行了分析,发现各种模型均能够解决特定的LUCC问题,同时也存在着缺陷和局限性。目前,LUCC建模中仍存在着时空尺度和数据方面的问题,未来LUCC模型发展趋势主要表现在解决LUCC中多尺度问题,评价和解决空间领域效应和时间动态方面的问题,土地系统可持续性综合分析与建模等方面。

引用

页码：782 / 790

页数：9

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