A manifesto for the equifinality thesis

被引：1690

作者：

Beven, K ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Lancaster, Inst Environm & Nat Sci, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England

来源：

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY | 2006年 / 320卷 / 1-2期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会;

关键词：

equifinality; GLUE; hydrological models; observation error; fuzzy measures; uncertainty;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.007

中图分类号：

TU [建筑科学];

学科分类号：

0813 ;

摘要：

This essay discusses some of the issues involved in the identification and predictions of hydrological models given some calibration data. The reasons for the incompleteness of traditional calibration methods are discussed. The argument is made that the potential for multiple acceptable models as representations of hydrological and other environmental systems (the equifinality thesis) should be given more serious consideration than hitherto. It proposes some techniques for an extended GLUE methodology to make it more rigorous and outlines some of the research issues still to be resolved. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

引用

页码：18 / 36

页数：19

共 88 条

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