A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd

被引：32

作者：

Chapagain, P. P. ^{[1
]}

Van Kessel, J. S. ^{[2
]}

Karns, J. S. ^{[2
]}

Wolfgang, D. R. ^{[3
]}

Hovingh, E. ^{[3
]}

Nelen, K. A. ^{[3
]}

Schukken, Y. H. ^{[1
]}

Grohn, Y. T. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Cornell Univ, Coll Vet Med, Dept Populat Med & Diagnost Sci, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA

[2] USDA ARS, Environm Microbial Safety Lab, Beltsville, MD USA

[3] Penn State Univ, Dept Vet & Biomed Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

来源：

EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION | 2008年 / 136卷 / 02期

基金：

美国农业部;

关键词：

D O I：

10.1017/S0950268807008400

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for I year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.

引用

页码：263 / 272

页数：10

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