Bayesian Modeling of Uncertainty in Ensembles of Climate Models

被引:151
作者
Smith, Richard L. [1 ]
Tebaldi, Claudia [2 ]
Nychka, Doug [3 ,4 ]
Mearns, Linda O. [3 ,5 ]
机构
[1] Univ N Carolina, Dept Stat & Operat Res, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA
[2] Climate Cent, Princeton, NJ 08542 USA
[3] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
[4] Inst Math Appl Geosciences IMAGe, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
[5] Inst Study Soc & Environm ISSE, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Bayesian modeling of uncertainty; Climate change; Cross-validation; Prediction; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE; AOGCM SIMULATIONS; FORECASTS; PROBABILITY; RELIABILITY; PROJECTIONS; AVERAGE; RANGE;
D O I
10.1198/jasa.2009.0007
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
Projections of future climate change caused by increasing greenhouse gases depend critically on numerical climate model, coupling the ocean and atmosphere (global climate models [GCMs]). However, different models differ substantially in their projections, which raises the question of how the different models can best be combined into a probability distribution of future climate change. For this analysis, we have collected both Current and future projected mean temperatures produced by nine climate models for 22 regions of the earth. We also have estimates of current mean temperatures from actual observations, together with standard errors, that can be used to calibrate the climate models. We propose a Bayesian analysis that allows us to combine the different climate models into a posterior distribution of future temperature increase, for each of the 22 regions, while allowing for the different climate models to have different variances. Two versions of the analysis are proposed: a univariate analysis in which each region is analyzed separately, and a multivariate analysis in which the 22 regions are combined into an overall statistical model. A cross-validation approach is proposed to confirm the reasonableness of our Bayesian predictive distributions. The results, of this analysis allow for a quantification of the uncertainty of climate model projections as a Bayesian posterior distribution, substantially extending previous approaches to uncertainty in climate models.
引用
收藏
页码:97 / 116
页数:20
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