A heuristic procedure for solving the dynamic probabilistic project expediting problem

Because of activity duration uncertainties, large-scale projects can often be modeled most realistically as probabilistic activity networks. The complex interactions among activities with uncertain durations virtually assures a low probability that these projects will be completed before predetermined due dates. As a result, it is often necessary to expedite individual activities in these projects to improve due date performance. This research introduces a dynamically applied matrix simulation approach for selecting expediting options in order to control the probability of successful project completion before predefined due dates. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate the ability of this new approach to generate quality alternatives and efficiently evaluate large-scale projects. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.