Measuring volatility in the Nordic spot electricity market using Recurrence Quantification Analysis

被引：13

作者：

Strozzi, F. ^{[1
]}

Gutierrez, E. ^{[2
]}

Noe, C. ^{[1
]}

Rossi, T. ^{[1
]}

Serati, M. ^{[1
]}

Zaldivar, J. M. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Carlo Cattaneo, Castellanza, Italy

[2] Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, I-21020 Ispra, Italy

来源：

EUROPEAN PHYSICAL JOURNAL-SPECIAL TOPICS | 2008年 / 164卷 / 1期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1140/epjst/e2008-00837-1

中图分类号：

O4 [物理学];

学科分类号：

0702 ;

摘要：

In this work, we have applied Recurrence Quanti. cation Analysis (RQA) to data sets taken from the Nordic spot electricity market. Our main interest was in trying to correlate their volatility with variables obtained from the quanti. cation of recurrence plots (RP). For this reason we have based our analysis on known historical events: the evolution of the Nord Pool market and climatic factors, i.e. dry and wet years, and we have compared several dispersion measures with RQA measures in correspondence of these events. The analysis suggests that two RQA measures: DET and LAM can be used as a measure of the inverse of the volatility. The main advantage of using DET and LAM is that these measures provide also information about the underlying dynamics. This fact is shown using shuffled and linear Gaussian surrogates of the real time series.

引用

页码：105 / 115

页数：11

共 24 条

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