Models versus radiosondes in the free atmosphere: A new detection and attribution analysis of temperature

被引：21

作者：

Lott, F. C. ^{[1
]}

Stott, P. A. ^{[1
]}

Mitchell, D. M. ^{[2
]}

Christidis, N. ^{[1
]}

Gillett, N. P. ^{[3
]}

Haimberger, L. ^{[4
]}

Perlwitz, J. ^{[5
,6
]}

Thorne, P. W. ^{[7
,8
]}

机构：

[1] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter EX1 3BP, Devon, England

[2] Univ Oxford, Dept Atmospher Ocean & Planetary Phys, Oxford, England

[3] Environm Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada

[4] Univ Vienna, Dept Meteorol & Geophys, Vienna, Austria

[5] Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

[6] NOAA, Earth Syst Res Lab, Div Phys Sci, Boulder, CO USA

[7] NCSU, Cooperat Inst Climate & Satellites, Asheville, NC USA

[8] NOAA, Natl Climat Data Ctr, Asheville, NC USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES | 2013年 / 118卷 / 06期

关键词：

CLIMATE-CHANGE; ERA;

D O I：

10.1002/jgrd.50255

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

This analysis revisits detection and attribution of free atmosphere temperatures from radiosondes, almost a decade after previous studies. Since that time, data sets have not only become longer, but understanding of observational uncertainty has vastly improved. In addition, a coordinated set of experiments exploring the effects of human and natural forcings on past climate change has been made with a new generation of climate models. These advances allow a much more thorough analysis of the effects of modeling and observational uncertainty on attribution results than previously possible. Observational uncertainty is explored using multiple radiosonde reconstructions including those with ensembles of realizations exploring the effects of processing choices. Modeling uncertainty is explored by calculating multiple fingerprints of natural influence (from changes in solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols) and of human influence (due to greenhouse gases and due to the effects of combined anthropogenic forcings including stratospheric ozone depletion). With increased confidence over previous studies, human influences (both greenhouse gas and other anthropogenic forcings) have been detected in spatiotemporal changes in free atmosphere temperature from 1961 to 2010, irrespective of whether the full atmospheric column (30-850 hPa) is examined or purely the troposphere, with stratospheric ozone depletion dominating the cooling that has been observed in the lower stratosphere. Thus the advances of the last decade yield increased confidence that anthropogenic influences have made a substantial contribution to the evolution of free atmosphere temperatures. Citation: Lott, F. C., P. A. Stott, D. M. Mitchell, N. Christidis, N. P. Gillett, L. Haimberger, J. Perlwitz, and P. W. Thorne (2013), Models versus radiosondes in the free atmosphere: A new detection and attribution analysis of temperature, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 2609-2619, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50255.

引用

页码：2609 / 2619

页数：11

共 42 条

[1] Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, part I: theory [J].

Allen, MR ;

Stott, PA .

CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2003, 21 (5-6) :477-491

[2] Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting [J].

Allen, MR ;

Tett, SFB .

CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 1999, 15 (06) :419-434

[3] Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative forcing [J].

Cionni, I. ;

Eyring, V. ;

Lamarque, J. F. ;

Randel, W. J. ;

Stevenson, D. S. ;

Wu, F. ;

Bodeker, G. E. ;

Shepherd, T. G. ;

Shindell, D. T. ;

Waugh, D. W. .

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS, 2011, 11 (21) :11267-11292

[4] Simulation of the influence of solar radiation variations on the global climate with an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model [J].

Cubasch, U ;

Voss, R ;

Hegerl, GC ;

Waszkewitz, J ;

Crowley, TJ .

CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 1997, 13 (11) :757-767

[5] The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system [J].

Dee, D. P. ;

Uppala, S. M. ;

Simmons, A. J. ;

Berrisford, P. ;

Poli, P. ;

Kobayashi, S. ;

Andrae, U. ;

Balmaseda, M. A. ;

Balsamo, G. ;

Bauer, P. ;

Bechtold, P. ;

Beljaars, A. C. M. ;

van de Berg, L. ;

Bidlot, J. ;

Bormann, N. ;

Delsol, C. ;

Dragani, R. ;

Fuentes, M. ;

Geer, A. J. ;

Haimberger, L. ;

Healy, S. B. ;

Hersbach, H. ;

Holm, E. V. ;

Isaksen, L. ;

Kallberg, P. ;

Koehler, M. ;

Matricardi, M. ;

McNally, A. P. ;

Monge-Sanz, B. M. ;

Morcrette, J. -J. ;

Park, B. -K. ;

Peubey, C. ;

de Rosnay, P. ;

Tavolato, C. ;

Thepaut, J. -N. ;

Vitart, F. .

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2011, 137 (656) :553-597

[6] Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations [J].

Eyring, V. ;

Arblaster, J. M. ;

Cionni, I. ;

Sedlacek, J. ;

Perliwitz, J. ;

Young, P. J. ;

Bekki, S. ;

Bergmann, D. ;

Cameron-Smith, P. ;

Collins, W. J. ;

Faluvegi, G. ;

Gottschaldt, K. D. ;

Horowitz, L. W. ;

Kinnison, D. E. ;

Lamarque, J. F. ;

Marsh, D. R. ;

Saint-Martin, D. ;

Shindell, D. T. ;

Sudo, K. ;

Szopa, S. ;

Watanabe, S. .

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2013, 118 (10) :5029-5060

[7]

Forster P., 2007, CLIMATE CHANGE 2007, P663

[8] On the warming in the tropical upper troposphere: Models versus observations [J].

Fu, Qiang ;

Manabe, Syukuro ;

Johanson, Celeste M. .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2011, 38

[9] Detecting anthropogenic influence with a multi-model ensemble [J].

Gillett, NP ;

Zwiers, FW ;

Weaver, AJ ;

Hegerl, GC ;

Allen, MR ;

Stott, PA .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2002, 29 (20)

[10] SOLAR INFLUENCES ON CLIMATE [J].

Gray, L. J. ;

Beer, J. ;

Geller, M. ;

Haigh, J. D. ;

Lockwood, M. ;

Matthes, K. ;

Cubasch, U. ;

Fleitmann, D. ;

Harrison, G. ;

Hood, L. ;

Luterbacher, J. ;

Meehl, G. A. ;

Shindell, D. ;

van Geel, B. ;

White, W. .

REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS, 2010, 48

← 1 2 3 4 5 →