Joint Monte Carlo and possibilistic simulation for flood damage assessment

A joint Monte Carlo and fuzzy possibilistic simulation (MC-FPS) approach was proposed for flood risk assessment. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate parameter uncertainties associated with inundation modeling, and fuzzy vertex analysis was applied for promulgating human-induced uncertainty in flood damage estimation. A study case was selected to show how to apply the proposed method. The results indicate that the outputs from MC-FPS would present as fuzzy flood damage estimate and probabilistic-possibilistic damage contour maps. The stochastic uncertainty in the flood inundation model and fuzziness in the depth-damage functions derivation would cause similar levels of influence on the final flood damage estimate. Under the worst scenario (i.e. a combined probabilistic and possibilistic uncertainty), the estimated flood damage could be 2.4 times higher than that computed from conventional deterministic approach; considering only the pure stochastic effect, the flood loss would be 1.4 times higher. It was also indicated that uncertainty in the flood inundation modeling has a major influence on the standard deviation of the simulated damage, and that in the damage-depth function has more notable impact on the mean of the fitted distributions. Through applying MC-FPS, rich information could be derived under various alpha-cut levels and cumulative probabilities, and it forms an important basis for supporting rational decision making for flood risk management under complex uncertainties.