The transmission dynamics of BSE and vCJD

被引：24

作者：

Ghani, AC ^{[1
]}

Donnelly, CA ^{[1
]}

Ferguson, NM ^{[1
]}

Anderson, RM ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med St Ma, Fac Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London W2 1PG, England

来源：

COMPTES RENDUS BIOLOGIES | 2002年 / 325卷 / 01期

基金：

英国惠康基金;

关键词：

BSE; CJD; mathematical model;

D O I：

10.1016/S1631-0691(02)01389-6

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The bovine spongiform. encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in cattle has had a huge economic impact on the agricultural industries across Europe. Furthermore, scientific evidence now strongly supporting a link between a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) and consumption of BSE-infected animals has further heightened the need both to understand the transmission of these new diseases and to improve control measures to protect public health. In this paper we review work undertaken by our group using epidemiological models to understand the transmission dynamics of BSE and vCJD. We present new estimates of the future number of cases of BSE and the number of infected animals slaughtered for consumption for Great Britain, and summarise similar analyses undertaken for Northern Ireland, Ireland, Portugal and France. We also consider the epidemiological determinants of the future course of the vCJD epidemic, including the age and genetic characteristics of the confirmed cases, and present predictions of future case numbers. To cite this article: A.C. Ghani et al., C. R. Biologies 325 (2002) 37-41. (C) 2002 Academie des Sciences/Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS.

引用

页码：37 / 47

页数：11

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