Evolution of the 2007-2008 Arctic sea ice cover and prospects for a new record in 2008

被引：21

作者：

Drobot, Sheldon ^{[1
]}

Stroeve, Julienne ^{[3
]}

Maslanik, James ^{[1
]}

Emery, William ^{[1
]}

Fowler, Charles ^{[1
]}

Kay, Jennifer ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Colorado, Colorado Ctr Astrodynam Res, Dept Aerosp Engn Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

[2] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[3] Univ Colorado, Natl Snow & Ice Data Ctr, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2008年 / 35卷 / 19期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1029/2008GL035316

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

The record Arctic sea ice minimum in 2007 has heightened debate on whether the Arctic Ocean has reached a tipping point, leading to a rapid transition towards a seasonal ice cover. Here, we review the 2007-2008 winter and spring ice and atmosphere conditions and assess how likely another record minimum is in summer 2008. At the end of June, 67% of the Arctic Ocean was covered by younger-than-average ice and only 5% was covered by older than-average-ice. Using a simple estimate based on ice survival rates, a new record low is reached in 2008 in 24 of 25 cases. With a more complex linear regression model, we suggest the September sea ice extent will be 4.40 million square kilometers, with a 40% chance that 2008 will set a new record low Arctic ice minimum.

引用

页数：5

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