Prognostic significance of pathologic features in localized prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy: Implications for staging systems and predictive models

Purpose: Although predicting outcome for men with clinically localized prostate cancer (PC) has improved, the staging system and nomograms used to do this are based on results from the North American health system. To be internationally applicable, these models require testing in cohorts from a variety of different health systems based on the predominant PC case identification methods used. Patients and Method: We studied 732 men with localized PC treated with radical prostatectomy and no preoperative therapy between 1986 and 1999 at one Australian institution to determine the effect of clinico-pathologic features on disease-free survival. Results: Preoperative serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration, Gleason score, pathologic stage, and year of surgery were independent predictors of outcome. Although margin status demonstrated only a trend toward significance in multivariate modeling overall, it proved to be independent in subgroups based on later year of surgery (1986 to 1994 v 1995 to 1998), preoperative PSA of less than 10 ng/mL, and Gleason score greater than or equal to 7. Adjuvant radiation therapy improved disease-free survival rates in patients with multiple surgical margin involvement. Conclusion: This work confirms the prognostic significance of pathologic stage, Gleason score, and preoperative serum PSA. In the context of a contemporaneous screening effect in Australia, these findings may have implications for methods that predict outcome following surgery as screening becomes more prevalent in a population. The independent prognostic effect of margin status may alter with an increase in the proportion of screening-identified PCs. Staging systems and nomograms that predict outcome following surgery require validation in cohorts with different health practices before being universally applied. J Clin Oncol 19:3692-3705. (C) 2001 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.