Further validation of a questionnaire to identify women likely to have low bone density

A questionnaire instrument called the Simple Calculated Osteoporosis Risk Estimation (SCORE*) stratifies risk for osteoporosis, potentially reducing population-screening costs. SCORE is calculated using race, weight, age, history of estrogen use, fracture history, and presence/absence of rheumatoid arthritis. We tested SCORE in 912 postmenopausal women aged 45 yr or more using a Hologic QDR4500C densitometer for the total hip, femoral neck, and lumbar spine. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 111) norms were used to calculate hip T-scores. Low bone density (T-score < -2.0) was found in 29.6% of patients at the femoral neck, 17.7% at the total hip, 36.1% at the lumbar spine, and 46.1% at one or more sites. The sensitivity/specificity of the SCORE model (using a threshold of 6 points) was 0.97/0.36 for the femoral neck, 0.95/0.30 for the total hip, 0.86/0.35 for the spine, and 0.88/0.41 for any site (total hip, femoral neck, or spine). When used to detect low bone density at any site, SCORE would have deferred 27.6% of women referred for DXA scans, but 20.7% of these (5.7% of the entire population) would have been false-negatives, and thus inappropriately deferred. At a cutpoint of 3 instead of 6, sensitivity/specificity was 0.96/0.16. In those aged 50-60, the group with the greatest need for risk stratification, sensitivity/specificity for low density at any site was 0.72/0.54, and 46.1% would have been deferred, but 18.5% of this group would have been false-negatives. A cutpoint of I in this age group yielded sensitivity/specificity of 0.94/0.16. After age 65, few women would be deferred. Conclusion: When used to detect low bone density at any site with sufficient sensitivity for clinical practice, SCORE did not have sufficient discriminatory power to be broadly applicable.