The roles of aerosol, water vapor and cloud in future global dimming/brightening

被引：55

作者：

Haywood, Jim M. ^{[1
,4
]}

Bellouin, Nicolas ^{[1
]}

Jones, Andy ^{[1
]}

Boucher, Olivier ^{[1
,5
]}

Wild, Martin ^{[3
]}

Shine, Keith P. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Met Off, Hadley Ctr, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England

[2] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England

[3] ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland

[4] Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England

[5] CNRS UPMC, Lab Meteorol Dynam, Paris, France

来源：

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES | 2011年 / 116卷

基金：

英国工程与自然科学研究理事会;

关键词：

SOLAR-RADIATION; IRRADIANCE; IMPACT; CYCLE;

D O I：

10.1029/2011JD016000

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Observational evidence indicates significant regional trends in solar radiation at the surface in both all-sky and cloud-free conditions. Negative trends in the downwelling solar surface irradiance (SSI) have become known as 'dimming' while positive trends have become known as 'brightening'. We use the Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM2 climate model to model trends in cloud-free and total SSI from the pre-industrial to the present-day and compare these against observations. Simulations driven by CMIP5 emissions are used to model the future trends in dimming/brightening up to the year 2100. The modeled trends are reasonably consistent with observed regional trends in dimming and brightening which are due to changes in concentrations in anthropogenic aerosols and, potentially, changes in cloud cover owing to the aerosol indirect effects and/or cloud feedback mechanisms. The future dimming/brightening in cloud-free SSI is not only caused by changes in anthropogenic aerosols: aerosol impacts are overwhelmed by a large dimming caused by increases in water vapor. There is little trend in the total SSI as cloud cover decreases in the climate model used here, and compensates the effect of the change in water vapor. In terms of the surface energy balance, these trends in SSI are obviously more than compensated by the increase in the downwelling terrestrial irradiance from increased water vapor concentrations. However, the study shows that while water vapor is widely appreciated as a greenhouse gas, water vapor impacts on the atmospheric transmission of solar radiation and the future of global dimming/brightening should not be overlooked.

引用

页数：14

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