A FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING OPERATIONAL MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION FORECASTS A CLIVAR MJO Working Group Project

被引：217

作者：

Gottschalck, J. ^{[1
]}

Wheeler, M. ^{[2
]}

Weickmann, K. ^{[3
]}

Vitart, F. ^{[4
]}

Savage, N. ^{[5
]}

Lin, H. ^{[6
]}

Hendon, H. ^{[2
]}

Waliser, D. ^{[7
]}

Sperber, K. ^{[8
]}

Nakagawa, M. ^{[9
]}

Prestrelo, C. ^{[11
]}

Flatau, M. ^{[10
]}

Higgins, W.

机构：

[1] NOAA NCEP Climate Predict Ctr, Camp Springs, MD 20746 USA

[2] Ctr Australian Weather & Climate Res, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[3] NOAA Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO USA

[4] European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading RG2 9AX, Berks, England

[5] Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England

[6] Environm Canada, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[7] NASA, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA USA

[8] Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Dept Energy, Livermore, CA USA

[9] Japan Meteorol Agcy, Tokyo, Japan

[10] USN, Res Lab, Monterey, CA USA

[11] Ctr Weather Forecasting & Climate Studies, Sao Paulo, Brazil

来源：

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | 2010年 / 91卷 / 09期

关键词：

TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION; EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS; ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM; COUPLED EQUATORIAL WAVES; AMERICAN-MONSOON-SYSTEM; 1997-98; EL-NINO; CIRCULATION ANOMALIES; SUMMER MONSOON; SIMULATION DIAGNOSTICS; BREAK PHASES;

D O I：

10.1175/2010BAMS2816.1

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability across the global tropics and is a natural component of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. The MJO has been intensively studied during the past 35 years through both observational analysis and modeling studies, and it has been shown that the MJO can lead to numerous impacts affecting weather and climate. The impacts of the MJO are not confined to the tropics. The variation in atmospheric heating and upper-level divergence associated with the MJO often modulates the midlatitude circulation in a way similar to that demonstrated for ENSO over seasonal time scales. The MJO forecast diagnostic was determined through extensive deliberations among the MJOWG in conjunction with input from a number of operational centers.

引用

页码：1247 / 1258

页数：12

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