Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

被引：1112

作者：

Barnosky, Anthony D. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Hadly, Elizabeth A. ^{[4
]}

Bascompte, Jordi ^{[5
]}

Berlow, Eric L. ^{[6
]}

Brown, James H. ^{[7
]}

Fortelius, Mikael ^{[8
,9
]}

Getz, Wayne M. ^{[10
]}

Harte, John ^{[10
,11
]}

Hastings, Alan ^{[12
]}

Marquet, Pablo A. ^{[13
,14
,15
]}

Martinez, Neo D. ^{[16
]}

Mooers, Arne ^{[17
]}

Roopnarine, Peter ^{[18
]}

Vermeij, Geerat ^{[19
]}

Williams, John W. ^{[20
]}

Gillespie, Rosemary ^{[10
]}

Kitzes, Justin ^{[10
]}

Marshall, Charles ^{[1
,2
]}

Matzke, Nicholas ^{[1
]}

Mindell, David P. ^{[21
]}

Revilla, Eloy ^{[22
]}

Smith, Adam B. ^{[23
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Integrat Biol, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[2] Univ Calif Berkeley, Museum Paleontol, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[3] Univ Calif Berkeley, Museum Vertebrate Zool, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[4] Stanford Univ, Dept Biol, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[5] CSIC, Estn Biol Donana, Integrat Ecol Grp, Seville 41092, Spain

[6] TRU N Labs, Berkeley, CA 94705 USA

[7] Univ New Mexico, Dept Biol, Albuquerque, NM 87131 USA

[8] Univ Helsinki, Dept Geosci & Geog, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland

[9] Univ Helsinki, Finnish Museum Nat Hist, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland

[10] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[11] Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[12] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Davis, CA 95616 USA

[13] Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Fac Ciencias Biol, Dept Ecol, Santiago, Chile

[14] Inst Ecol & Biodiversidad, Santiago, Chile

[15] Santa Fe Inst, Santa Fe, NM 87501 USA

[16] Pacific Ecoinformat & Computat Ecol Lab, Berkeley, CA 94703 USA

[17] Simon Fraser Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada

[18] Calif Acad Sci, San Francisco, CA 94118 USA

[19] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Geol, Davis, CA 95616 USA

[20] Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53706 USA

[21] Univ Calif San Francisco, Dept Biophys & Biochem, San Francisco, CA 94102 USA

[22] CSIC, Estn Biol Donana, Dept Conservat Biol, E-41092 Seville, Spain

[23] Missouri Bot Garden, Ctr Conservat & Sustainable Dev, St Louis, MO 63110 USA

来源：

NATURE | 2012年 / 486卷 / 7401期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

LATE-QUATERNARY VEGETATION; EARLY-WARNING SIGNALS; CLIMATE-CHANGE; INTERACTION STRENGTH; HUMAN APPROPRIATION; DIVERSITY LOSS; REGIME SHIFTS; EXTINCTION; BIODIVERSITY; TRANSFORMATION;

D O I：

10.1038/nature11018

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale 'tipping point' highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.

引用

页码：52 / 58

页数：7

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