Simulating the effects of climate and agricultural management practices on global crop yield

被引:238
作者
Deryng, D. [1 ,2 ]
Sacks, W. J. [3 ]
Barford, C. C. [3 ]
Ramankutty, N. [1 ]
机构
[1] McGill Univ, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ H3A 2K6, Canada
[2] Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England
[3] Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Sustainabil & Global Environm, Madison, WI USA
关键词
USE EFFICIENCY; FOOD; MODEL; WATER; GROWTH; MAIZE; VEGETATION; CROPLANDS; CARBON; LAND;
D O I
10.1029/2009GB003765
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Climate change is expected to significantly impact global food production, and it is important to understand the potential geographic distribution of yield losses and the means to alleviate them. This study presents a new global crop model, PEGASUS 1.0 ( Predicting Ecosystem Goods And Services Using Scenarios) that integrates, in addition to climate, the effect of planting dates and cultivar choices, irrigation, and fertilizer application on crop yield for maize, soybean, and spring wheat. PEGASUS combines carbon dynamics for crops with a surface energy and soil water balance model. It also benefits from the recent development of a suite of global data sets and analyses that serve as model inputs or as calibration data. These include data on crop planting and harvesting dates, crop-specific irrigated areas, a global analysis of yield gaps, and harvested area and yield of major crops. Model results for present-day climate and farm management compare reasonably well with global data. Simulated planting and harvesting dates are within the range of crop calendar observations in more than 75% of the total crop-harvested areas. Correlation of simulated and observed crop yields indicates a weighted coefficient of determination, with the weighting based on crop-harvested area, of 0.81 for maize, 0.66 for soybean, and 0.45 for spring wheat. We found that changes in temperature and precipitation as predicted by global climate models for the 2050s lead to a global yield reduction if planting and harvesting dates remain unchanged. However, adapting planting dates and cultivar choices increases yield in temperate regions and avoids 7-18% of global losses.
引用
收藏
页数:18
相关论文
共 57 条
[31]   Global scale climate - crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming [J].
Lobell, David B. ;
Field, Christopher B. .
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2007, 2 (01)
[32]   Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030 [J].
Lobell, David B. ;
Burke, Marshall B. ;
Tebaldi, Claudia ;
Mastrandrea, Michael D. ;
Falcon, Walter P. ;
Naylor, Rosamond L. .
SCIENCE, 2008, 319 (5863) :607-610
[33]   Climate and management contributions to recent trends in US agricultural yields [J].
Lobell, DB ;
Asner, GP .
SCIENCE, 2003, 299 (5609) :1032-1032
[34]   Food for thought:: Lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations [J].
Long, Stephen P. ;
Ainsworth, Elizabeth A. ;
Leakey, Andrew D. B. ;
Noesberger, Josef ;
Ort, Donald R. .
SCIENCE, 2006, 312 (5782) :1918-1921
[35]   Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources: a spatially explicit mathematical programming approach [J].
Lotze-Campen, Hermann ;
Mueller, Christoph ;
Bondeau, Alberte ;
Rost, Stefanie ;
Popp, Alexander ;
Lucht, Wolfgang .
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, 2008, 39 (03) :325-338
[36]   The end of world population growth [J].
Lutz, W ;
Sanderson, W ;
Scherbov, S .
NATURE, 2001, 412 (6846) :543-545
[37]   Climate model based consensus on the hydrologic impacts of climate change to the Rio Lempa basin of Central America [J].
Maurer, E. P. ;
Adam, J. C. ;
Wood, A. W. .
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, 2009, 13 (02) :183-194
[38]   Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000 [J].
Monfreda, Chad ;
Ramankutty, Navin ;
Foley, Jonathan A. .
GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, 2008, 22 (01)
[39]  
Nelson J, 2009, CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL POVERTY: A BILLION LIVES IN THE BALANCE, P223
[40]   A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas [J].
New, M ;
Lister, D ;
Hulme, M ;
Makin, I .
CLIMATE RESEARCH, 2002, 21 (01) :1-25