Influence of spatial heterogeneity on an emerging infectious disease:: the case of dengue epidemics

被引：88

作者：

Favier, C

Schmit, D

Müller-Graf, CDM

Cazelles, B

Degallier, N

Mondet, B

Dubois, MA

机构：

[1] Univ Paris 06, LOCEAN, CNRS UMR 182, IRD UR 034, F-75252 Paris, France

[2] CEA Saclay, SPEC, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France

[3] Univ Paris 06, Lab Parasitol Evolut, CNRS, UMR 7103, F-75252 Paris, France

[4] Univ Paris 06, Ecol Lab, CNRS, UMR 7625, F-75252 Paris, France

[5] IRD UR GEODES, F-93143 Bondy, France

[6] IRD Ctr Hann, IRD UR 034, Dakar, Senegal

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES | 2005年 / 272卷 / 1568期

关键词：

dengue; urban epidemics; heterogeneous models; Easter Island; Brazil;

D O I：

10.1098/rspb.2004.3020

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The importance of spatial heterogeneity and spatial scales (at a village or neighbourhood scale) has been explored with individual-based models. Our reasoning is based on the Chilean Easter Island (EI) case, where a first dengue epidemic occurred in 2002 among the relatively small population localized in one village. Even in this simple situation, the real epidemic is not consistent with homogeneous models. Conversely, including contact heterogeneity on different scales (intra-households, inter-house, inter-areas) allows the recovery of not only the El epidemiological curve but also the qualitative patterns of Brazilian urban dengue epidemic in more complex situations.

引用

页码：1171 / 1177

页数：7

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