Expert Status and Performance

被引：229

作者：

Burgman, Mark A. ^{[1
]}

McBride, Marissa ^{[1
]}

Ashton, Raquel ^{[1
]}

Speirs-Bridge, Andrew ^{[1
]}

Flander, Louisa ^{[2
]}

Wintle, Bonnie ^{[1
]}

Fidler, Fiona ^{[1
]}

Rumpff, Libby ^{[3
]}

Twardy, Charles ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Melbourne, Sch Bot, Australian Ctr Excellence Risk Anal, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia

[2] Univ Melbourne, Melbourne Sch Populat Hlth, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia

[3] Univ Melbourne, Sch Bot, Commonwealth Ctr Appl Environm Decis Anal, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia

[4] George Mason Univ, C4I Ctr, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA

来源：

PLOS ONE | 2011年 / 6卷 / 07期

关键词：

JUDGMENT; PROBABILITY; FORECAST; TRUST;

D O I：

10.1371/journal.pone.0022998

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience [1,2]. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.

引用

页数：7

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