Modelling patterns of clearance of HPV-16 infection and vaccination efficacy

被引:22
作者
Baussano, Iacopo [1 ,2 ]
Garnett, Geoff
Segnan, Nereo [3 ]
Ronco, Guglielmo [3 ]
Vineis, Paolo [4 ]
机构
[1] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London W2 1PG, England
[2] CPO Piemonte, SCDU Epidemiol Tumori, Serv Stat Med, I-28100 Novara, Italy
[3] CPO Piemonte, Epidemiol Tumori, I-10100 Turin, Italy
[4] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Dept Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, London W2 1PG, England
关键词
Human Papillomavirus; Vaccination; Mathematical modelling; HUMAN-PAPILLOMAVIRUS INFECTION; CERVICAL INTRAEPITHELIAL NEOPLASIA; VIRUS-LIKE PARTICLES; NATURAL-HISTORY; MATHEMATICAL-MODELS; YOUNG-WOMEN; FOLLOW-UP; RISK; TYPE-16; COHORT;
D O I
10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.11.082
中图分类号
R392 [医学免疫学]; Q939.91 [免疫学];
学科分类号
100102 ;
摘要
A model representing carcinogenic HPV infection transmission dynamics and cervical cancer natural history was adapted to assess the consequences of introducing vaccination against HPV-16 infection. Alternative scenarios either allowing repeated infections with the HPV-16 (i.e. SIS scenario) or assuming that clearance of infection occurs through the development of a long lasting, specific immune response which protects against re-infection (i.e. SIR scenario) were investigated. The difference in reduction in lifetime cervical cancer achieved through vaccination of 12-year-old girls, between SIS and SIR scenarios, was up to 25% of expected cases in an unscreened population. This difference increased to 30% when vaccination of 12-year-old boys was also included as an intervention. The role of SIS or SIR dynamics should be accounted for in the assessment of model-based projections of the effectiveness of vaccination programmes, until available data about the transmission dynamics support the accuracy of model predictions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:1270 / 1277
页数:8
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