AN EARTH-SYSTEM PREDICTION INITIATIVE FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

被引：68

作者：

Shapiro, Melvyn ^{[1
,2
]}

Shukla, Jagadish ^{[3
,4
]}

Brunet, Gilbert ^{[5
]}

Nobre, Carlos ^{[6
]}

Beland, Michel ^{[5
]}

Dole, Randall ^{[7
]}

Trenberth, Kevin ^{[1
]}

Anthes, Richard ^{[8
]}

Asrar, Ghassem ^{[9
]}

Barrie, Leonard ^{[10
]}

Bougeault, Philippe ^{[12
]}

Brasseur, Guy ^{[11
]}

Burridge, David ^{[13
]}

Busalacchi, Antonio ^{[14
]}

Caughey, Jim ^{[13
]}

Chen, Deliang ^{[15
,16
]}

Church, John ^{[17
,18
]}

Enomoto, Takeshi ^{[19
]}

Hoskins, Brian ^{[20
,21
]}

Hov, Oystein ^{[22
]}

Laing, Arlene ^{[1
]}

Le Treut, Herve ^{[23
]}

Marotzke, Jochem ^{[24
]}

McBean, Gordon ^{[25
]}

Meehl, Gerald ^{[1
]}

Miller, Martin ^{[26
]}

Mills, Brian ^{[27
]}

Mitchell, John ^{[28
]}

Moncrieff, Mitchell ^{[1
]}

Nakazawa, Tetsuo ^{[29
]}

Olafsson, Haraldur ^{[30
,31
]}

Palmer, Tim ^{[26
,32
]}

Parsons, David

Rogers, David ^{[33
]}

Simmons, Adrian ^{[26
]}

Troccoli, Alberto ^{[34
]}

Toth, Zoltan ^{[7
]}

Uccellini, Louis ^{[35
]}

Velden, Christopher ^{[36
]}

Wallace, John M. ^{[37
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[2] Univ Bergen, Inst Geophys, Bergen, Norway

[3] George Mason Univ, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA

[4] Inst Global Environm & Soc, Calverton, MD USA

[5] Environm Canada, Atmospher Sci & Technol Directorate, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[6] Natl Inst Space Res, Ctr Earth Syst Sci, Sao Jose Dos Campos, Brazil

[7] NOAA, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO USA

[8] Univ Corp Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO USA

[9] World Meteorol Org, World Climate Res Programme, Geneva, Switzerland

[10] World Meteorol Org, Atmospher Res & Environm Programme, Geneva, Switzerland

[11] Climate Serv Ctr, Hamburg, Germany

[12] Meteo France, Toulouse, France

[13] World Meteorol Org, World Weather Res Programme, THORPEX, Geneva, Switzerland

[14] Univ Maryland, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD 20742 USA

[15] Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden

[16] Int Council Sci, Paris, France

[17] Bur Meteorol, Ctr Australian Weather & Climate Res, Hobart, Tas, Australia

[18] Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org, Hobart, Tas, Australia

[19] Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Earth Simulator Ctr, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan

[20] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England

[21] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Grantham Inst, London, England

[22] Norwegian Meteorol Inst, Oslo, Norway

[23] Meteorol Dynam Lab, Palaiseau, France

[24] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany

[25] Univ Western Ontario, Inst Catastroph Loss Reduct, London, ON, Canada

[26] European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading RG2 9AX, Berks, England

[27] Environm Canada, Adaptat & Impacts Res Div, Waterloo, ON, Canada

[28] Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England

[29] Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305, Japan

[30] Univ Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland

[31] Univ Bergen, Bergen, Norway

[32] Univ Oxford, Oxford, England

[33] Hlth & Climate Fdn, Washington, DC USA

[34] Univ Reading, Environm Syst Sci Ctr, Reading, Berks, England

[35] NOAA, NCEP Environm Modeling Ctr, Camp Springs, MD USA

[36] Univ Wisconsin, CIMSS, Madison, WI USA

[37] Univ Washington, Dept Meteorol, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

来源：

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | 2010年 / 91卷 / 10期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

ALBEDO ENHANCEMENT; CLIMATE-CHANGE; WEATHER; SIMULATIONS; IMPACT;

D O I：

10.1175/2010BAMS2944.1

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Some scientists have proposed the Earth-System Prediction Initiative (EPI) at the 2007 GEO Summit in Cape Town, South Africa. EPI will draw upon coordination between international programs for Earth system observations, prediction, and warning, such as the WCRP, WWRP, GCOS, and hence contribute to GEO and the GEOSS. It will link with international organizations, such as the International Council for Science (ICSU), Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), UNEP, WMO, and World Health Organization (WHO). The proposed initiative will provide high-resolution climate models that capture the properties of regional high-impact weather events, such as tropical cyclones, heat wave, and sand and dust storms associated within multi-decadal climate projections of climate variability and change. Unprecedented international collaboration and goodwill are necessary for the success of EPI.

引用

页码：1377 / 1388

页数：12

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