Emissions trading in China: A conceptual 'leapfrog' approach?

China is well aware of the advantages of quantity-based economic instruments (i.e., emissions trading) for domestic pollution control, but pilot studies and experimental programs in Taiyuan, Hong Kong/Guangdong, and other locations have not been successful. This paper proposes a very different type of emissions trading program, designed with Chinese implementation concerns in mind. It has three component parts: (1) a real-time intermittent control system (ICS) strategy designed to address public health concerns in the near term; (2) software-oriented Predictive emissions monitoring systems (PEMS) targeting process parameter (rather than emission) reporting from individual emission sources; and (3) real-time emissions markets responding to the ICS constraint. The technical and political difficulties associated with implementing such a system are recognized as daunting. However, such an approach would 'leapfrog' over existing systems, allowing the country to develop a comprehensive air pollution control strategy as economic growth occurs, continuously improving air quality in a cost efficient manner, utilizing both advanced technology and market-based control approaches in a manner consistent with China's unique environmental needs. It would also lay the groundwork for the eventual pricing of CO2 and other greenhouse gases within China. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.