Early-warning signals for critical transitions

被引：2990

作者：

Scheffer, Marten ^{[1
]}

Bascompte, Jordi ^{[2
]}

Brock, William A. ^{[3
]}

Brovkin, Victor ^{[5
]}

Carpenter, Stephen R. ^{[4
]}

Dakos, Vasilis ^{[1
]}

Held, Hermann ^{[6
]}

van Nes, Egbert H. ^{[1
]}

Rietkerk, Max ^{[7
]}

Sugihara, George ^{[8
]}

机构：

[1] Wageningen Univ, Dept Environm Sci, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands

[2] CSIC, Integrat Ecol Grp, Estac Biol Donana, E-41092 Seville, Spain

[3] Univ Wisconsin, Dept Econ, Madison, WI 53706 USA

[4] Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA

[5] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany

[6] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany

[7] Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Dept Environm Sci, Copernicus Inst, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands

[8] Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA

来源：

NATURE | 2009年 / 461卷 / 7260期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

CATASTROPHIC REGIME SHIFTS; SELF-ORGANIZED PATCHINESS; CRITICAL SLOWING-DOWN; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION; EPILEPTIC SEIZURES; TIME-SERIES; CLIMATE; PREDICTION; THRESHOLDS; VOLATILITY;

D O I：

10.1038/nature08227

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.

引用

页码：53 / 59

页数：7

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