A statistical volcanic forcing scenario generator for climate simulations

被引:14
作者
Ammann, C. M. [1 ]
Naveau, P. [2 ]
机构
[1] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
[2] CNRS, IPSL, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
GREENLAND ICE CORE; OPTICAL DEPTH PERTURBATIONS; QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION; EXPLOSIVE VOLCANISM; LAST MILLENNIUM; 20TH-CENTURY TEMPERATURE; ANTHROPOGENIC FORCINGS; GLOBAL VOLCANISM; SOLAR IRRADIANCE; EAST ANTARCTICA;
D O I
10.1029/2009JD012550
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
The climate system is continuously affected by forcings that add to its inherent variability. Recently, the dominant influence shifted from mostly natural factors to the rapidly increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing. Climate change simulations for the 21st and 22nd centuries then employ possible story lines of human socioeconomic development with associated radiative forcing that exclusively explore the potential human influence on climate. None of the scenarios, however, include natural factors that dominated climate variations prior to the large anthropogenic emissions. This leads to a discontinuity at the transition between the historical and the future projection period. Similarly, studies of transient climate variations before the last 1-2 millennia generally use only the well-known, slowly varying forcings such as orbital or greenhouse forcing derived from ice cores. While past solar irradiance variations can be reasonably estimated from cosmogenic isotope data, no well-dated, high-resolution information exists before about A. D. 500 that would allow for an implementation of forcing from explosive volcanism. Here, we present a statistical approach to generate statistically (and geophysically) realistic scenarios of volcanic forcing that are based on the properties of the longest available volcanic forcing series derived from ice cores. The resulting scenarios do not carry direct temporally predictive or hindcast capabilities, but they allow for an appropriate evaluation of natural uncertainty on various timescales. These series can be applied to ensure a seamless integration of an important natural forcing factor for climate change simulations of periods where such forcing is not available.
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页数:17
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