Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast

被引：1149

作者：

Stroeve, Julienne ^{[1
]}

Holland, Marika M.

Meier, Walt

Scambos, Ted

Serreze, Mark

机构：

[1] Univ Colorado, Natl Snow & Ice Data Ctr, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

[2] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, Earth & Sun Syst Lab, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2007年 / 34卷 / 09期

关键词：

CLIMATE-CHANGE; OCEAN; AMPLIFICATION;

D O I：

10.1029/2007GL029703

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

From 1953 to 2006, Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the melt season in September has declined sharply. All models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) show declining Arctic ice cover over this period. However, depending on the time window for analysis, none or very few individual model simulations show trends comparable to observations. If the multi-model ensemble mean time series provides a true representation of forced change by greenhouse gas (GHG) loading, 33-38% of the observed September trend from 1953-2006 is externally forced, growing to 47-57% from 1979-2006. Given evidence that as a group, the models underestimate the GHG response, the externally forced component may be larger. While both observed and modeled Antarctic winter trends are small, comparisons for summer are confounded by generally poor model performance.

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页数：5

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