BENEFIT-COST-ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT AFRICAN SWINE FEVER ERADICATION PROGRAM IN SPAIN AND OF AN ACCELERATED PROGRAM

We predicted the rate of spread and economic losses due to African swine fever (ASF) infections in Spanish swine for a 20 year period using current epidemiological data. Two possibilities for eradication were examined: continuation of the eradication program presently in use, assuming continued funding at present levels, and an accelerated eradication program using more frequent testing to identify seropositive carrier animals. Both programs theoretically would result in the eradication of African swine fever. The calculated benefit-cost ratios were 1.23 and 1.47 respectively. A reduction in current yearly funding would result in a benefit-cost ratio of 0.97, making the program unprofitable according to our model. The projected year for the eradication of outbreaks is 1996 using provinces as units in the model. Similarly, the projected year for the eradication of seropositive animals is 2001.