A model for predicting the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in packaged whole milk

Experiments were conducted to determine growth characteristics of Listeria monocytogenes in sterilized whole milk at nine temperatures in the range of 277.15 to 308.15K (4 to 35C). Based on these data, the parameter values of the Baranyi dynamic growth model were statistically determined. Finite element software, ANSYS, was used to determine temperature distributions in milk cartons subject to a time-varying ambient temperature profile. The space-time-temperature data were input to the Baranyi dynamic growth model, to predict the microbial population density distribution and the average population density in the milk carton. The Baranyi dynamic growth model and the finite element model were integrated and validated using experimental results from inoculated sterilized whole milk in half-gallon laminated paper cartons. In all experiments, the milk cartons were subjected to the same temperature profile as the Baranyi dynamic growth model. Experimental microbial counts were within predicted upper and lower bounds obtained using the integrated Baranyi dynamic growth and finite element models. In addition, the growth curve at the mean value of initial physiological state parameter for L. monocytogenes underpredicted the microbial growth (standard error = 0.54 log (cfu/mL) and maximum relative difference = 15.49%).