Calculations of the first and second moments of damage energy distributions from elastic collisions and from nuclear reactions, at proton energies ranging from 10 to 300 MeV, are incorporated into a model describing the probability of damage as a function of the proton fluence and the sensitive volume in Si. Comparisons between the predicted and measured leakage currents in Si imaging arrays illustrate how the Poisson distribution of higher energy nuclear reaction recoils affects the pixel-to-pixel variance in the damage across the array.